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If not for that painful setback, the star that was Doris Day would never have risen. Was the car accident that redirected her career an extraordinary twist in the story of an extraordinary life?

Confidence Coefficients

Or was it typical of some broader truth about life, that frustrations can actually help us? Perhaps it is true that what does not kill us makes us stronger. It may, in contrast, be that what does not kill us nevertheless slows us down. The conventional wisdom is that initial advantages tend to snowball into an avalanche of privilege.

Being a few months older at the age of five means you are stronger and faster, are more likely to be picked for school teams, get more practice and are still reaping the benefits as an adult athlete. The effect is particularly well-studied among boys playing ice hockey in Canada, and football in a variety of countries.

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At other times, well-deserved acclaim is followed by unearned praise. When a teacher and a student work together, the senior researcher is cited because that name is already recognised. The junior is easily forgotten. In the wider workplace, we have evidence that the luck of graduating in a benign economic climate can lead to a lasting advantage.

One researcher, Paul Oyer, found that young PhD and MBA students who started off in favourable job markets were employed in better places with smarter colleagues, and were still doing better a decade later than those who started out in tougher times. All this suggests that setbacks are setbacks: they drag us down, perhaps disproportionately. Doris Day was an exception, not the rule. Yet a striking new study suggests that the Doris Day effect is quite real in one particular group of people: young scientists applying for research grants.

In particular, they focused on borderline decisions, comparing those who scraped through to get a grant with those who just missed out.

African art

The near-winners and the near-losers were otherwise indistinguishable before the decision point, but afterwards it was the losers who prospered, publishing substantially more highly cited research papers. We should remember that anyone in a position to nearly secure a million-dollar research grant has presumably enjoyed a few successes along the way at school and university. Still: this is a counterintuitive finding.

Yet I was not entirely surprised to encounter it. It may be that many people respond to a setback by bouncing back with renewed determination. It may also be that the failure provokes a rethink and a fresh course of action.

Doris Day, after all, did not respond to a shattered leg by trying even harder to become a dancer. She changed her goals and prospered as a result.

Something as mundane as a strike disrupting regular commuting has been shown to push people towards new habits. Often failure is simply failure, and a setback is exactly what it seems. But sometimes the obstacle that has been placed in our path might provoke us to look around, and perhaps to discover that a better route was there all along.

Written for and first published in the Financial Times on 17 May Free email updates You can unsubscribe at any time Email Address Why we should favour second guesses over first instincts… Tension is rising in the Harford household as exams approach and we try to persuade Miss Harford Sr to relax, and Miss Harford Jr to be slightly less relaxed.

In a multiple-choice test, you sometimes write down an answer and then have second thoughts. Is it wise to stay with your first instincts, or better to switch? Most people would advise that the initial answer is usually better than the doubt-plagued second guess.

Three-quarters of students think so, according to various surveys over the years. College instructors think so too, by a majority of 55 to 16 per cent. Researchers have been studying this question since the s. They have overwhelmingly concluded both that individual answer changes are more likely to be from wrong to right, and that students who change their answers tend to improve their scores.

No doubt our first instincts are often right, but when we start to have second thoughts, the second thoughts are usually occurring for a reason.

It is better to switch. Justin Kruger, a psychologist at New York University, has been studying this question. Prof Kruger is more famous as co-discoverer of the Dunning-Kruger effect: people who are incompetent are too incompetent to realise how incompetent they are.

With his colleagues Derrick Wirtz and Dale Miller he replicated the longstanding findings that college students believe you should trust your first answer in a multiple choice question, and yet that switching to a second answer tends to improve your grades.

Then the trio started to explore why.

In the study, both strategies produced identical results, yet subjects watching a switching teammate were more frustrated and critical and had a good memory for the errors. Another study by Prof Kruger and his colleagues showed that we also have a warped recollection of our own errors in multiple choice tests.

We have a rosy memory of sticking to our first instincts, forgetting the failures and exaggerating the successes. We vividly recall switching to the wrong answer and overestimate how often we did so. In short, we remember sticking as having been the best tactic, when in fact switching was better.

Our own experiences do indeed tell us that, but only because we misremember the lessons of previous switches. If you — or a loved one — are about to enter exam season, perhaps this evidence-based strategy will be of use. How often in life do we make a choice and then stick to it despite mounting doubts? In politics, such questions are aggravated by questions of partisanship and pride.

Nobody wants to admit that they were wrong in the face of jeers from those on the opposite side of the political fence. The U-turn is one of the greatest sins in politics, if only because it is so easy to criticise.

Either you were wrong before or you are wrong now. But even in everyday life, we find ourselves clinging to bad choices. Steven Levitt, the co-author of Freakonomics , once conducted a study in which people hesitating over big choices — to leave a spouse, to adopt a child, to quit a job, to start a business — agreed to be guided by a coin toss. Those who had been nudged to act ended up being happier several months on than those who had been nudged to stick with the status quo.

We are prone to cling tightly to the devil we know. Culturally, it is extremely rich. In part this is because so few people from Burkina have become Muslim or Christian.

In great part they honor the spirits through the use of masks and carved figures. Many of the countries to the north of Burkina Faso had become predominantly Muslim, while many of the countries to the south of Burkina Faso are heavily Christian.

In contrast many of the people of Burkina Faso continue to offer prayers and sacrifices to the spirits of nature and to the spirits of their ancestors. The result is that they continue to use the sorts of art that we see in museums in Europe and America. The Fang people make masks and basketry, carvings, and sculptures. Fang art is characterized by organized clarity and distinct lines and shapes. Bieri, boxes to hold the remains of ancestors, are carved with protective figures. Masks are worn in ceremonies and for hunting.

The faces are painted white with black features. Myene art centers around Myene rituals for death. Female ancestors are represented by white painted masks worn by the male relatives. The Bekota use brass and copper to cover their carvings. They use baskets to hold ancestral remains. Tourism is rare in Gabon, and unlike in other African countries, art is not spurred on by commerce.

The Ivorian people use masks to represent animals in caricature to depict deities, or to represent the souls of the departed. As the masks are held to be of great spiritual power, it is considered a taboo for anyone other than specially trained persons or chosen ones to wear or possess certain masks.

These ceremonial masks are each thought to have a soul, or life force, and wearing these masks is thought to transform the wearer into the entity the mask represents. Ivory Coast also has modern painters and illustrators. Gilbert G. Groud criticizes the ancient beliefs in black magic , as held with the spiritual masks mentioned above, in his illustrated book Magie Noire. Around Lake Turkana exist ancient petroglyphs depicting human figures and animals.

Bantu tribes build funeral posts, carvings of human heads atop geometric designs are still created. Though the original posts no longer exist, these more recent creations are thought to be a continuation of the practice. The Kikuyu people also continue the designs of ancient tradition in the designs painted on their shields.

The two by virtue of having learned many basic techniques in design are highly innovative both in style, use of color and execution. The Eskenazi Museum of Art at Indiana University has a large collection of traditional art objects from Kenya including jewelry, containers, weapons, walking sticks, headrests, stools, utensils, and other objects available online. Ethiopian art from the 4th century until the 20th can be divided into two broad groupings.

First comes a distinctive tradition of Christian art, mostly for churches, in forms including painting , crosses , icons , illuminated manuscripts , and other metalwork such as crowns. Secondly there are popular arts and crafts such as textiles, basketry and jewellery , in which Ethiopian traditions are closer to those of other peoples in the region. Its history goes back almost three thousand years to the kingdom of D'mt.

The Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church has been the predominant religion in Ethiopia for over years, for most of this period in a very close relation, or union, with the Coptic Christianity of Egypt , so that Coptic art has been the main formative influence on Ethiopian church art.

Prehistoric rock art comparable to that of other African sites survives in a number of places, and until the arrival of Christianity stone stelae , often carved with simple reliefs, were erected as grave-markers and for other purposes in many regions; Tiya is one important site.

The "pre-Axumite" Iron Age culture of about the 5th century BCE to the 1st century CE was influenced by the Kingdom of Kush to the north, and settlers from Arabia , and produced cities with simple temples in stone, such as the ruined one at Yeha , which is impressive for its date in the 4th or 5th century BCE. The powerful Kingdom of Aksum emerged in the 1st century BCE and dominated Ethiopia until the 10th century, having become very largely Christian from the 4th century.

However the earliest works remaining show a clear continuity with Coptic art of earlier periods. There was considerable destruction of churches and their contents in the 16th century when the country was invaded by Muslim neighbours. The revival of art after this was influenced by Catholic European art in both iconography and elements of style, but retained its Ethiopian character.

In the 20th century, Western artists and architects began to be commissioned by the government, and to train local students, and more fully Westernized art was produced alongside continuations of traditional church art. Church paintings in Ethiopia were likely produced as far back as the introduction of Christianity in the 4th century AD, [46] although the earliest surviving examples come from the church of Debre Selam Mikael in the Tigray Region , dated to the 11th century AD.

Ethiopian painting, on walls, in books, and in icons , [49] is highly distinctive, though the style and iconography are closely related to the simplified Coptic version of Late Antique and Byzantine Christian art. From the 16th century, Roman Catholic church art and European art in general began to exert some influence.

However, Ethiopian art is highly conservative and retained much of its distinct character until modern times. The production of illuminated manuscripts for use continued up to the present day.

Another important form of Ethiopian art, also related to Coptic styles, are crosses made from wood and metal. The heads are typically flat cast plates with elaborate and complex openwork decoration. The cross motif emerges from the decoration, with the whole design often forming a rotated square or circular shape, though the designs are highly varied and inventive.

Many incorporate curved motifs rising from the base, which are called the "arms of Adam ". Except in recent Western-influenced examples, they usually have no corpus , or figure of Christ, and the design often incorporates numerous smaller crosses.

Engraved figurative imagery has sometimes been added. Crosses are mostly either processional crosses , with the metal head mounted on a long wooden staff, carried in religious processions and during the liturgy , or hand crosses, with a shorter metal handle in the same casting as the head. Smaller crosses worn as jewellery are also common. Ethiopia has great ethnic and linguistic diversity, and styles in secular traditional crafts vary greatly in different parts of the country.

There are a range of traditions in textiles, many with woven geometric decoration, although many types are also usually plain. Ethiopian church practices make a great deal of use of colourful textiles, and the more elaborate types are widely used as church vestments and as hangings, curtains and wrappings in churches, although they have now largely been supplanted by Western fabrics. Examples of both types can be seen in the picture at the top of the article.

Icons may normally be veiled with a semi-transparent or opaque cloth; very thin chiffon -type cotton cloth is a speciality of Ethiopia, though usually with no pattern.

Colourful basketry with a coiled construction is common in rural Ethiopia. The products have many uses, such as storing grains, seeds and food and being used as tables and bowls.

The Muslim city of Harar is well known for its high quality basketry, [53] and many craft products of the Muslim minority relate to wider Islamic decorative traditions.

Tinga Tinga art has roots in decorating hut walls in central and south Tanzania. It was first in when Edward Said Tingatinga started to paint on wooden sheets with enamel colours when Tinga Tinga art became known. The art of the Makonde must be subdivided into different areas. The Makonde are known as master carvers throughout East Africa, and their statuary that can be found being sold in tourist markets and in museums alike.

They traditionally carve household objects, figures and masks. Since the s years the socalled Modern Makonde Art has been developed. An essential step was the turning to abstract figures, mostly spirits Shetani that play a special role. Makonde are also part of the important contemporary artists of Africa today.

An outstanding position is taken by George Lilanga. The Kuba Kingdom flourished between the 17th and 19th centuries in the region bordered by the Sankuru , Lulua , and Kasai rivers in the south-east of the modern-day Democratic Republic of the Congo.

A great deal of the art was created for the courts of chiefs and kings and was profusely decorated, incorporating cowrie shells and animal skins especially leopard as symbols of wealth, prestige and power. Masks are also important to the Kuba. They are used both in the rituals of the court and in the initiation of boys into adulthood, as well as at funerals. Like many other Kuba masks, this one is decorated with cowrie shells.

Like many Kuba types of masks, ngady-mwash mask is extensively polychromed, or multicolored. Mulwalwa mask; 19th or early 20th century; painted wood and raffia; Ethnological Museum of Berlin.

This mask embodies a powerful nature spirit.

As there are no holes through which a performer could see, it was probably mounted on a wall at an initiation camp, signaling that the iniation was almost complete. Pwoom Itok mask; late 19th century; This mask may have represented a wise older man at boys' initiations. One of the principal Kuba dance masks is called pwoom itok. The chief identifying characteristic is the shape of the eyes, whose centers are cones surrounded by holes through which the wearer sees.

Like some of the masks, this belt is decorated with colorful beads. Ndop of king Mishe miShyaang maMbul; ; wood; Ndops are royal memorial portraits caverd by the Kuba people of Central Africa. They are not naturalistic portrayals but are intended as representations of the king's spirit and as an encapsulation of the principle of kingship. Head goblet Mbwoongntey ; 19th century; wood; Brooklyn Museum. It has one inch cylindrical lip with linear decoration. The hair is made up of crosshatched lines with a raised diamond-shaped segment on the back of the head.

It's cheeks have curved multilinear scarification. Itoon diviner's instrument, in form of a hippopotamus ; 19th century; wood; 7. Cloth; raffia ; In Kuba culture, men are responsible for raffia palm cultivation and the weaving of raffia cloth.

Today, the Luba people or baLuba are an ethno-linguistic group indigenous to the south-central region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As in the Kuba Kingdom , the Luba Kingdom held the arts in high esteem. A carver held relatively high status, which was displayed by an adze axe that he carried over his shoulder.

Luba art was not very uniform because of the vast territory which the kingdom controlled. However, some characteristics are common. The important role of woman in the creation myths and political society resulted in many objects of prestige being decorated with female figures. Headrest; 19th century; wood; height: This headrest presents 19th century Luba hairstyles, as well as the long limbs, bent-back legs, cylindrical torso and dynamic pose typical of the artist who made it.

Figurine of a standing woman; late 19th or early 20th century; wood; Heddle pulley with female head; late 19th or early 20th century; wood; Anthropomorphic pot; early 20th century; pottery; Head of a scepter; 19th century; by Yombe people.

Chair throne of a chief; 19th or early 20th century; wood; by Hemba people ; Rietberg Museum. Funerary figure tumba ; 19th century; wood; by Sundi people ; Rietberg Museum. Representing a disturbed man, the hooded V-looking eyes and the mask's artistic elements — face surfaces, distored features, and divided colour — evoke the experience of personal inner conflict.

Stone sculptures are extremely rare in African art. Warrior ancestor figure; 19th century; wood; Statuette of a woman; 19th century or early 20th century; by Holoholo people ; Ethnological Museum of Berlin Germany. Their most important artworks are the terraotta figurines. These figurines represent humans and animals. Other kinds of artifacts show that the Saos were skilled workers in bronze , copper , and iron.

In the northern part of Botswana, women in the villages of Etsha and Gumare are noted for their skill at crafting baskets from Mokola Palm and local dyes. The baskets are generally woven into three types: The artistry of these baskets is being steadily enhanced through color use and improved designs as they are increasingly produced for commercial use.

The oldest evidence ancient paintings from both Botswana and South Africa. Depictions of hunting, both animal and human figures were made by the San people dating before civilization over 20, years old within the Kalahari desert. Kingdom of Mapungubwe — was a pre-colonial state in Southern Africa located at the confluence of the Shashe and Limpopo rivers, south of Great Zimbabwe. The most famous Mapungubwe artwork is a tiny golden rhino, known as the golden rhinoceros of Mapungubwe.

In other graves from Mapengubwe were found objects made of iron, gold, copper, ceramic and glass beads. The Southern Ndebele people are famous for the way they paint their houses. Distinct geometric forms against stark, contrasting colours forms the basis of the Ndebele style, which encompassed everything from the architecture, clothing and tools of the people. While color has almoust always had a role in drawing emotions in art, the Ndebele were one of the first Southern African tribes to utilise a wide array of colours to convey specific meaning as part of their very lives.

Murals in the Ndebele from the Maastricht University the Netherlands. A beaded apron or meputo ; late 19th-early 20th century; hide, glass beads, metal beads, straw; Persisting for 3, years and thirty dynasties, the "official" art of Ancient Egypt was centred on the state religion of the time. The art ranged from stone carvings of both massive statues and small statuettes, to wall art that depicted both history and mythology.

A lot of the art possesses a certain stiffness, with figures poised upright and rigid in a regal fashion. Bodily proportions also appear to be mathematically derived, giving rise to a sense of fantastic perfection in the figures depicted.

This most likely was used to reinforce the godliness of the ruling caste.

Both sides of the Narmer Palette ; circa BC; greywacke ; height: The Narmer palette is the quintessential statement of the Egyptians' mythology of kingship.

A clear manifesto of royal power, it is also one with multiple layers of symbolism. This finely executed relief represents the most succinct assurance of perpetual offering for the deceased. Perhaps the most iconic image of a woman from the ancient world, the bust of Nefertiti is difficult to contextualize because it seems so exceptional. The Mask of Tutankhamun ; circa BC; gold, glass and semi-precious stones; height: The mummy mask of Tutankhamun is perhaps the most iconic object to survive from ancient Egypt.

Many big universal and ethnographic museums have a section dediacted to the art from Sub-Saharan, many of them being in very big cities, like the Metropolitan Museum of Art from New York and the Ethnological Museum of Berlin. Modern African art website - Change African Art website. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. For the journal, see African Arts journal. This article includes a list of references , but its sources remain unclear because it has insufficient inline citations.

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Main articles: Akan art and Adinkra symbols. See also: Several students were tested for reaction times in thousandthis of a second using their right and left hands. Each value is the elapsed time between the release of a strip of paper and the instant that it is caugh Let X i 1,2,3 denote the type i containers shipped during a given week. In clinical experiments involving different groups of independent samples, it is important that the groups be similar in the important ways that affect experiment.

In arn experiment designed to test the effectiven Complete parts a through c belo For cross-tabs with a df- , some statisticians will calculate Yate's correction making it harder to reject the null hypothesis because the number of cells is so small. For the following cross-tab, calculate Yate's co Top Statistics and Probability solution manuals Get step-by-step solutions. Find step-by-step solutions for your textbook. Submit Close. Get help on Statistics and Probability with Chegg Study.

Answers from experts Send any homework question to our team of experts. Step-by-step solutions View the step-by-step solutions for thousands of textbooks.In most of the plaques and other objects were taken by the British during a punitive expedition to the area as imperial control was being consolidated in Southern Nigeria. Archived from the original on 12 June Their most important artworks are the terraotta figurines.

She changed her goals and prospered as a result. This page was last edited on 15 April , at Researchers often decide how confident they need to be in their results and set the confidence level accordingly. Dogon art is extremely versatile, although common stylistic characteristics — such as a tendency towards stylization — are apparent on the statues.

Dakar , Senegal , and Johannesburg , South Africa. That is why Nok art is best known today only for the heads, both male and female, whose hairstyles are particularly detailed and refined. They are made of terracotta, a material that has been used in West Africa for some ten thousand years.