Biography The Change Book Mikael Krogerus Pdf


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THE CHANGE BOOK. Mikael Krogerus & Roman Tschäppeler. Translated by Jenny Piening. WITH ILLUSTRATIONS BY. PHILIP EARNHART AND DAG. DOWNLOAD PDF Mikael Krogerus Roman Tschäppeler The role-playing model: How to change your own point of view The result optimisation model: Why . How do you make your way in a world that is changing at an unprecedented rate ? Why do we have less and less time? Why are some people unfaithful?.

The Change Book Mikael Krogerus Pdf

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The Change Book: Fifty Models to Explain How Things Happen Authors Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschappeler previously came out with The Decision. Buy The Change Book: How Things Happen on ✓ FREE SHIPPING on The Question Book: What Makes You Tick? by Mikael Krogerus Hardcover $ Get your Kindle here, or download a FREE Kindle Reading App. How do you make your way in a world that is changing at an unprecedented rate ? Why do The Question Book: What Makes You Tick? by Mikael Krogerus Hardcover $ Get your Kindle here, or download a FREE Kindle Reading App.

He maintained that if we are able to imagine a being as perfect as God, then he must exist. Black box model p. And what do you believe in despite having no evidence to support it? It reveals behavioural traits and tendencies.

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four different perspectives: How much of a team person are you, and how much of an individualist? Do you pay more attention to content or to form? What is more important to you: Do you feel more global than local? Use a pen to connect the lines. You are only creating a snapshot. And note that the sum of an axis should always be ten you cannot be ten points local and ten points global.

What is preventing you from being the way you would like to be? Fill in the model for yourself. Then ask your partner or a good friend to fill it in for you. Compare the results. The art of dressing without dressing up. But why? The Swiss author Pascal Mercier says this: What matters is to move surely and calmly, with the appropriate humour and the appropriate melancholy in the temporally and spatially internal landscape that we are.

Or to put it another way, how often do you think, wistfully or thankfully, about what has been?


How often do you have the feeling that you are really concentrating on what you are doing at a particular moment? How often do you imagine what the future may hold, and how often do you worry about what lies ahead of you? The three examples shown in the model on the right can also represent cultural values: But you can ruin the present by worrying about the future. Crossroads model p.

Stability, on the other hand, is to do with how deeply information is anchored in our brains. Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level of retrievability. But if you see the number in front of you, you will recognise it immediately. Imagine that you are learning Chinese. You have learned a word and memorised it. Without practice, over time it will become increasingly difficult to remember.

The amount of time it takes for you to forget it completely can be calculated, and ideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in the process of forgetting it. The more often you are reminded of the word, the longer you will remember it for. Jan Cox After learning something, you should ideally refresh your memory of it at the following intervals: Traditionally at opposite ends of the political spectrum, Labour and Conservative have moved so close together in terms of shared economic and social policies, that there is little left to distinguish them.

Traditional definitions can also be misleading. Its position on race and nationalism means that the BNP is generally regarded as radically right-wing, yet it is far to the left even of Labour when it comes to some social issues like health and housing. The clear-cut political divisions of the past may have become blurred, but there are models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters.

One of the most famous of these tools is called the political compass. You can plot your political position on this model, the axes of which are left—right and liberal—authoritarian.

Note that the left—right axis relates not to political orientation in the traditional sense, but to economic policy: The liberal—authoritarian axis relates to individual rights: Always radical, never consistent. Walter Benjamin Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the general election by politicalcompass. Ask yourself where you stand. Where did you stand ten years ago? But how can job dissatisfaction be measured? This model will help you to evaluate your job situation.

To what extent are my current tasks being imposed on me or demanded of me? To what extent do my tasks match my abilities? To what extent does my current task correspond to what I really want? If the shape of the sail is always the same, then ask yourself the following: To what extent do they match your abilities, and to what extent do they correspond to what you want?

Our dreams are acted out in the future, and our hopes are pinned on fulfilling these dreams. Perhaps because we think we can determine our future. However, we tend to forget that every future has a past, and that our past is the foundation on which our future is built. This is how it works: Then add the following to the timeline: Memory is the only paradise from which we cannot be driven.

Jean Paul Choose a timeframe and note the following: What were your goals? What did you learn? What obstacles did you overcome? What were your successes? Which people played an important role? It is the curse of talented people. His shortcomings are overlooked and his successes admired for the ease with which they are achieved. To begin with, he profits from this attractive yet fatal combination of talent and charisma.

That is, until the stupid ones become hardworking: The personal potential trap can be precisely traced. In the model are three curves: Normally a talented person cruises along until a crisis point is reached. The way to go is to promise 80 and deliver Are you prepared to expect less of yourself than what you think others expect of you? The model shows three curves: If the three diverge too much, you will fall into the personal potential trap.

Will Facebook survive? What will be the next big thing? Will it be relevant and useful — and will people love it? Noboby knows the answers to these questions, but the people at Stamford consulting company Gartner might know more than most.

What people love about technology is, basically, that it works. Emailing works. The internet, if you have a bit of time on your hands, works. Text messaging works. What do they all have in common? They all went through each of the five phases of the hype cycle: Technology trigger. The product is on the market and you hear about it everywhere: Peak of inflated expectations.

The hype is at its peak. But people start to find mistakes. You hear: Trough of disillusionment. The product fails to meet expectations. The not-so-cool people use it. Slope of enlightenment. The media have stopped covering the technology, the hype is over. This is when many technologies simply fall out of the market. But some businesses might continue to experiment.

They might change the original version or find new uses for it. Plateau of productivity. The benefits of the technology become widely demonstrated and accepted.

Often it is the 2. You hear… nothing any more. People simply use it. Love is for ever as long as it lasts. The chasm p. Then you start having second thoughts. After a certain time you either split up or make a long-term commitment. There is not one single, well-established concept in the field of management on which you can build a testable theory. What are the subtle differences between functioning and non-functioning structures?

But what we do know, thanks to US journalist Mark Buchanan, is that communication is vital for a healthy working environment, and that communication takes place on two levels: Who is saying what to whom?

Who moves when, how often and where to? In what tone of voice is A speaking to B? Who is stressed, who seems to be suffering from burnout? Who do you talk to most of all? Whose opinion do you value most? With whom do you speak and how often, and what are the consequences of your discussions?

Arrange your discussions with colleagues in the matrix. And could you say with which five people you communicate the most? And could you also say what all your acquaintanceships have in common? The following model attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of your address book. Go through your contacts list and divide up your contacts according to the following criteria: This is also interesting: Family tree model p.

Who would you like to see more of? Who would you prefer to see less of?

The Change Book: Fifty Models to Explain How Things Happen

What do you know? Begin with the top right field. Some people learn from them, while others repeat them. Here is what you need to know about mistakes. There are different types of mistake: The model compares the different levels on which mistakes occur with slices of Emmental cheese. In a mistake-free world, the cheese would have no holes. But in the real world, the cheese is cut into thin slices, and every slice has many holes that are in different places in different slices.

Imagine the holes as conduits for mistakes. A mistake remains unnoticed or irrelevant if it penetrates only one hole in one of the slices. But it can lead to catastrophe if the holes in the different slices align and the mistake passes through all the holes in all of the defences.

The model can be used in the fields of medicine and air traffic, for example — and anywhere where mistakes can have fatal consequences. Experience is the name everyone gives to his mistakes. Results optimisation model p. The pilot makes a mistake. The co-pilot reacts incorrectly.

While attempting to rectify the mistake, another is made. Are you having sex? Do you have a family? Are you intellectually stimulated? Scoring three yeses is paradise; two yeses is what you need to be happy, and one yes is what you need to survive.

He categorised human needs as follows: If they are satisfied, a person no longer thinks about them.

Reward Yourself

The last two are aspirations or personal growth needs; they can never really be satisfied. The pyramids model becomes interesting if we contrast our aspirations with our needs.

Rule of thumb for the Western world: Create your own personal basic needs pyramids: What do you have? What do you want? Innovative ideas usually emerge when we leave our comfort zone, or when we break the rules. The task: Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lines without lifting your pen from the paper.

The solution: The trick is to extend the lines outside the box. This puzzle is often used as an example of creative thinking. He developed the Restricted Environmental Stimulation Technique REST , which involves a person spending time in a darkened room with no visual or auditory stimulation.

On the contrary: A person who wants to think outside the box is better off thinking inside a box. It is often used in marketing to define target groups. The idea was developed by the French sociologist Emile Durkheim. On the next double page is a rarely used version by another French sociologist, Pierre Bourdieu, in the form of an axis model. The narrowness of the Sinus groups is often criticised. Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu model, despite its limitations.

It shows us that if a majority have become used to one system, it is difficult for another system to establish itself.

Habit is stronger than the desire for improvement. Our origins are our future. Martin Heidegger Where would you position yourself? Where would you position your parents? Where would you like to be positioned? Bourdieu model: Where would you position yourself? And where would you like to be positioned? Strictly speaking, this is not a model but a technique for know-alls. How can you master this desirable technique? First-order observers see things as they appear to them.

For them, the world is simply there. Second-order observers, on the other hand, attribute what the first-order observers see to how they see it.

In other words, second-order observers observe a way of observing. If, for example, you criticise a football referee for making a wrong decision, you are a second-order observer: During the act of observing, first-order observers are unaware of their own way of observing — it is their blind spot.

Recognising this blind spot enables second-order observers to become know-alls. They are able to point out to the first-order observers that it is possible to observe differently and thus see things differently. In the best-case scenario, the single loop the first-order observation is best practice.

Something that works well is not changed but simply repeated. In the worst-case scenario it is worst practice — the same mistake is repeated, or a problem is solved without questioning how it arose in the first place. In double-loop learning you think about and question what you are doing, and try to break your own pattern, not simply by doing something differently, but by thinking about why you do it the way you do it.

What are the objectives and values behind your actions? If you are fully aware of these, you may be able to change them. The problem inherent in the double loop is the discrepancy between what we say we are about to do known as espoused theory and what we actually do known as theory in use.

If we really want to change something, it is not enough to create guidelines for our employees or ourselves, or to give directives. These only reach us as a command espoused theory. Real changes occur when we reassess our more deeply rooted reasons, objectives and values. Be the change you want to see. Which pattern would you like to break? What is preventing you from breaking it? The abbreviation AI stands for Appreciative Inquiry, a method attributed to the American management expert David Cooperrider that involves concentrating on the strengths, positive attributes and potential of a company or a person, rather than weaknesses.

Every person, every system, every product, every idea has faults. In the best-case scenario, an awareness of this fact can lead to a determined pursuit of perfection. But in many cases, focusing too strongly on the flaws of an idea or project stifles the open and positive approach that is essential for good working practices.

The basic principle is to take an idea that is not yet fully developed and to continue developing it, instead of prematurely abandoning it. People often reveal their character in their approach to discussions. Four basic types can be identified, according to how people react to suggestions: And most fools do. Benjamin Franklin The next time you are in a group discussion, make a note of how each person presents their arguments.

In the s, the model experienced a renaissance as a party game: Surprisingly, Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from Pamela Anderson. The small-world phenomenon becomes even more interesting when it comes to viral marketing: Social networks like LinkedIn and Facebook show how many contacts you have and through how many other people you know these contacts. See also: We wear 20 per cent of the clothes we have in our wardrobes and spend 80 per cent of our time with 20 per cent of our friends.

But anybody who wants to plan their time optimally should know that roughly 20 per cent of the time spent on a task leads to 80 per cent of the results.

I am definitely going to take a course on time management… just as soon as I can work it into my schedule. Louis E. Long-tail model p. In , the editor-in-chief o f Wired, Chris Anderson, claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on the internet is also actually sold — however bizarre or unnecessary the product.

It appears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead of uniformity. Anderson used a demand curve to illustrate his claim. On the far left, the curve rises sharply upwards. Here are the best-sellers and blockbusters that account for 20 per cent of the market.

Then the curve levels out gently to the right. This is where we find the less popular books and films. This part of the curve is much wider, spanning many more products, than the peak. Instinctively one would think the Pareto principle is right: But the figures suggest something different: Pareto principle p.

Individual demand may be low, but collectively the niche products are worth more than the best-sellers. It can never be written out in full: Randomness is found in many phenomena that we would like to be able to predict, such as changes in the weather or the movements of share prices. Inspired by the casino city of Monte Carlo, a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate these apparently incalculable phenomena.

If you roll a dice, you know that you will roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. This is exactly how the Monte Carlo simulation works: Why is the Monte Carlo model important?

The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking

Because it reminds us that models do not represent reality, but are simply an approximation of reality. You repeat the process many times. Your result is determined statistically if the majority of the dots usually land inside the circle, you can predict that this is where your dot is likely to land in future , but there is still a certain margin of error. How do we know what we know? Does the past help us predict the future?

Why do we never expect unexpected events? In his book The Problems of Philosophy, Bertrand Russell summarised the answers to all three questions: It starts to firmly believe that humans are kind. We humans also have to acknowledge that the biggest catastrophes usually come as a complete surprise to us.

For example, when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World Trade Center, the public was shocked — the catastrophe seemed to strike completely without warning. However, in the weeks and months following 11 September , it seemed that practically everything had pointed towards this attack. The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon — our inability to predict the future from the past — the black swan.

In the Western world it was always assumed that all swans were white — until naturalists in the seventeenth century discovered a breed of black swans. What had hitherto been unimaginable was suddenly taken for granted. And it reminds us that we tend to cling most tightly to pillars that we see toppling.

What were the black swans — the unexpected events — in your life, and when did they occur? One of the most famous diffusion studies is an analysis by Bruce Ryan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the s in Greene County, Iowa. The new type of corn was better than the old sort in every way, yet it took twenty-two years for it to become widely accepted.

They were the opinion leaders in the communities, respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and then joined them. Translated into a graph, this development takes the form of a curve typical of the progress of an epidemic.

It rises, gradually at first, then reaches the critical point of any newly launched product, when many products fail. According to the US sociologist Morton Grodzins, if the early adaptors succeed in getting the innovation across the chasm to the sceptical masses, the epidemic cycle reaches the tipping point. From there, the curve rises sharply when the masses accept the product, and sinks again when only the stragglers remain.

With technological innovations like the iPod or the iPhone, the cycle described above is very short. Interestingly, the early adaptors turn away from the product as soon as the critical masses have accepted it, in search of the next new thing.

The chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and author Geoffrey Moore. First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. At what point on the curve have you purchased an iPod? Black and white, good and bad, right and wrong have been displaced by complicated constructs that leave most people in the dark. As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex, the amount that we really know — that we can really grasp and understand — decreases all the time.

As recently as the s, teachers still tried to explain to their pupils how computers worked, in terms of binary code. Today it is more or less taken for granted that we do not understand many of the things that surround us, such as mobile phones and iPods. And even if somebody tried to explain the DNA code to us, we would probably be out of our depth.

We cannot comprehend the inner processes of a black box, but none the less we integrate their inputs and outputs into our decision-making. The amount that we simply have to believe, without understanding it, is increasing all the time. As a result, we are tending to assign more importance to those who can explain something than to their actual explanation.

In the future it will be the norm to convince people with images and emotions rather than with arguments. Black swan model p. We are often no longer able to understand increasingly complex explanations. But how can we recognise class distinctions and social status?

The model over the page has two axes: In the matrix we define four types: They drive two identical Rolls-Royces for fear of otherwise appearing too showy. They donate millions to charity to soothe their consciences. There is a touch of the ridiculous about them. Good for nothing. They should be routinely ignored. The status symbol of this group is the monster SUV. However, their propensity for hysteria suggests that it could all be over soon. But this sustainable way of life is motivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage.

The green SUVers do not forgo luxury, because nowadays luxury is green. The metaphor of this new elite is the green SUV: The poor wish to be rich, the rich wish to be happy, the single wish to be married, and the married wish to be dead.

But is this true? Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together. The maximum sentence for the crime is ten years. The two suspects have been arrested separately, and each is offered the same deal: If both he and his accomplice remain silent, there will only be circumstantial evidence, which will none the less be enough to put both men behind bars for two years. But if both he and his accomplice confess to the crime, they will both be sentenced to five years in prison.

The suspects cannot confer. How should they react under questioning? Should they trust each other? The two suspects both lose if they opt for the most obvious solution — i. They fare better if each one trusts that the other will remain silent: Note that if only one of the suspects confesses, then the sentence is ten years for the other suspect and the confessor is freed.

He found that in the first round it is best to cooperate with your accomplice i. In the second round, do what your accomplice did in the previous round. By imitating his moves, he will follow yours. Indira Gandhi You and your accomplice are on trial. If only you confess, your accomplice will serve ten years.

If you both remain silent, you will both serve two years. If both of you confess, you will both serve five years. You cannot confer. How should you react? One of the best — and also one of the simplest — was developed by Alan Drexler and David Sibbet, founders of consulting company The Grove.

The model illustrates seven different stages that participants in a project typically go through. Follow the arrows in the model over the page. At every stage there is a question that we ask ourselves at that point: Many of the stages seem obvious and trivial, but experience shows that every group goes through every stage. If you skip a stage, you will have to return to it later. If you are leading a team, you should present the model at the beginning of the project.

After the project has started, ask the participants at regular intervals: If you are unsure about which stage your team is currently going through, look at the adjectives associated with each stage in the model and ask yourself which adjectives apply to you personally, and which ones apply to the team. An open conflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages and forces you to address issues during later stages that should have been dealt with earlier.

The model is simply an aid to orientation: Groups move forward only when one of the participants dares to take the first step. As leader, you should be prepared to be the first to make mistakes.

The team performance model shows the seven stages that every group goes through when carrying out a project.

Regardless of whether you are the head of a nursery or of a national sports team, or whether you want to set up a company or a fund-raising committee, you will be asking yourself the same questions: Do I have the right people for this project?

Do our skills correspond to our goals? Are we capable of doing what we want to do? This team model will help you to judge your team. Begin by defining the skills, expertise and resources that you think are important for carrying out the project. Note the skills that are absolutely necessary for the job. Distinguish between soft skills e. For each skill, define where your critical boundary lies on a scale of zero to ten. For example, an acceptable level of fluency in French might be five. Connect the points with a line.

Even more revealing than the model itself is the subsequent self-evaluation by the team members. A good team is one that can correctly judge its own capabilities. Real strength lies in differences, not in similarities. The best executive is the one who has sense enough to pick good men to do what he wants done, and self-restraint enough to keep from meddling with them while they do it. Afterwards, ask the team members to evaluate themselves.

How do the curves compare? But what is the best way of proceeding? The gap-in-the-market model helps by depicting a market in a clear, three-dimensional way. Draw three axes that measure the development of your market, your customers and your future products. Say that you want to launch a new magazine. Look for a niche, an area that has been overlooked and that is not yet occupied.

If an area is completely empty, you should check whether there is a demand there at all. Positioning is like drilling for oil. Close is not good enough. This model helps you to identify gaps in the market: Where is there a niche? Man is a machine and should be treated as such Taylor, Ford. Paying attention to social factors, and not objectively regulated working conditions, leads to the best results Hawthorne.

Organisations can regulate themselves Clark, Farley. And strategic management, i. When they are starting a job, employees need strong leadership.

When they are new their level of commitment is usually high, but their level of expertise is still low. Employees are given orders and instructions. Because of stress and the loss of the initial euphoria at starting a new job, their motivation and commitment levels have fallen. The employees are asked questions, and they look for the answers themselves. The level of expertise has risen sharply.

The level of motivation can vary: Employees are fully in control of their work. The level of motivation is high. They are given their own projects and lead their own teams.

Lead your employees in such a way that you yourself become superfluous. And lead your employees to be successful, so that one day they will be in a leadership position themselves.

Read from right to left. New employees must first be instructed, then coached, then supported, and finally delegated to. The ratio of competence to work ethic on a time axis. This is how it works. An idea or a strategy is discussed by the members of a group. During the discussion, all the members adopt one of the six points of view — reflected in the colour of the hat. It is important that all members of the group wear the same colour hat at the same time. These are the characteristics associated with each colour: The meeting must be moderated to ensure that the team members do not slip out of their designated role.

Homogenous teams, i. In the s, Meredith Belbin studied individuals and character roles and their influence on group processes. Based on his observations, he identified nine different profiles: If you have a good idea, but fear that it may meet with strong resistance, try to lead the discussion in such a way that the other members of the group think that they came up with the idea themselves.

The more people feel they have originated an idea, the more passionately they fight for its implementation. I never did anything alone. What was accomplished, was accomplished collectively. Drexler—Sibbet team performance model p. Most of them are based on the premise that there is a fixed amount of time in which to carry out a project. Generally, within this time, ideas are gathered G and consolidated C , and a concept is selected and implemented I.

In real life we all know that we never have enough time. And the little time we do have is reduced by unforeseen events like a printer breaking down the minute you want to use it. The result optimisation model divides the available time into three sequences loops of equal length, thereby forcing the project manager to complete the project three times.

The idea is to improve the outcome in each successive working loop. This method leads not only to improved output quality but also to a more successful final outcome: Be stringent when carrying out this strategy: Otherwise this model loses its dynamic. With development processes, it is important to clearly separate the three stages, of gathering, consolidation and implementation. A beautiful thing is never perfect. After the third time it really is finished. Even when it comes to making the simplest decision, the number of factors to be taken into account can exceed our powers of imagination.

Therefore management models have tried to reduce complexity by condensing ideas into a matrix with four fields. Spreadsheets are among the most powerful management tools of recent years. Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way of viewing, understanding and organising the world. They have changed the way we understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed the way we look at the sky.

When they were introduced, spreadsheets and matrices were new visual aids which offered companies a way of viewing reality from a new perspective. But the reality was more complex than the models would lead us to believe. The next top model was introduced in the s by Frederic Vester.

He popularised the idea of networked thinking. How to handle complex situations, systematic thinking, chaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading for managers for years. Yet management theory today is at about the same stage as medicine was before the introduction of X-ray technology and, more recently, computer tomography. Before then, doctors were largely unable to penetrate beyond symptoms to the underlying causes, and their treatment methods were correspondingly primitive and imprecise.

The development of the new techniques made possible increasingly precise procedures.

And soon, genetic engineering may enable us to tackle the causes of diseases directly. The type of analysis now used in genetic engineering is promising new insights in the area of management. The programs that are being developed for the decryption of genetic information and for the early detection of diseases will, in future, also help to decipher patterns in buying behaviour and other information flows.

In Super Crunchers, Ian Ayres shows how this is already possible today. Here are some examples he gives: Only then can they choose an alternative question from the menu.

Apparently Visa is already able to predict divorces on the basis of credit-card data.

Today, the results of certain decisions are first tested in a virtual world before they are implemented in real markets — a kind of market test in silico. Nowadays, almost everything we do, buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces by means of RFID tags, people and products can be relatively easily located in space and time.

In this way, companies are able to monitor how their business is running, where their customers or employees are, what they are currently doing and even how they are feeling. In the future, decision-makers will work with prognosis tools as described above rather than with models. But there is a problem: The formulas and models that explain the world are black boxes, understood by only a few experts.

The typical user has to trust the system without understanding it. But although we may not know exactly what the models are calculating, we can still test, measure and refine them with real customer and market data. Does this mean that you can forget all the models you have encountered in this book? On the contrary.

The value of these early models should not be underestimated: Even with the newest medical inventions to hand, a doctor will still rely on the most basic diagnostic tools: The models in this book give us a way of looking at the world. Most readers stick to one of the three groups. Do an experiment: Give the same talk again — to a different audience — and while you are speaking draw models for them that roughly illustrate your thoughts.

How many of the listeners copy the models?

How many make notes this time? These are the advantages of giving ideas a visual form: You are no longer standing in front of a jury, you are speaking with the jury about a separate issue. Your listeners will look at the model and remember your lecture. You can only draw stick-men? Not to worry. The more sophisticated and perfect a drawing is, the more alienating it is. With simple, clear drawings the audience gets the feeling that they could do this too. When they are drawn in real time, even imprecise or arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer — and treated more leniently.

Draw an iceberg to draw attention to a growing problem, a temple if you want to illustrate pillars of success, a bridge to show connections, rough outlines of countries to establish a geographical context, a conveyor belt for procedures and processes, a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas, a pyramid for a hierarchy. Everyone understands traffic signs — or the play and pause button signs on the remote control.

Even better: If you have to discuss important but unconnected ideas, write them down and circle each one. The same applies if your circles come out looking like eggs. Find out more about OverDrive accounts. How do you make your way in a world that is changing at an unprecedented rate? Why do we have less and less time? Why are some people unfaithful?

How can our government act against threats before they happen? This book is about change - from the small and seemingly insignificant transitions in our day-to-day lives, to the big and almost incomprehensible shifts in human history.

Drawing on expert advice and often complex theories, the authors of the bestselling The Decision Book present fifty simple and effective models to help us make sense of change in our world. Change is happening all around us, in every sphere from the personal and political to economics and the environment. In The Change Book you'll find models explaining the financial crisis, why biotechnology is the industry of the future and why cities are the new nations.

Whether you're buying a new car, deciding who to vote for, or making an investment, this little black book will offer surprisingly simple explanations of our complicated world - and radically challenge some of your preconceived ideas.

He is a graduate from Kaospilot School in Aarhus, Denmark.The problem inherent in the double loop is the discrepancy between what we say we are about to do known as espoused theory and what we actually do known as theory in use.

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together. What is the Pareto principle? When they are new their level of commitment is usually high, but their level of expertise is still low. They were the opinion leaders in the communities, respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and then joined them. How should I behave in conflict situations? Her conclusion: He developed the Restricted Environmental Stimulation Technique REST , which involves a person spending time in a darkened room with no visual or auditory stimulation.

Other books by Mikael Krogerus. And how many do you trust?